{"id":1440,"date":"2015-11-29T22:35:42","date_gmt":"2015-11-29T21:35:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.wetter-center.de\/blog\/?p=1440"},"modified":"2016-02-01T09:30:47","modified_gmt":"2016-02-01T08:30:47","slug":"update-winterprognose-201516","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wetter-center.de\/blog\/update-winterprognose-201516\/","title":{"rendered":"Update Winterprognose 2015\/16"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Kurz vor dem meteorologischen Winteranfang folgt nun wie versprochen ein Update zur <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wetter-center.de\/blog\/?p=1421\">Winterprognose 2015\/16<\/a>.\u00a0Obwohl wie erwartet in der zweiten Novemberh\u00e4lfte ein\u00a0Wintereinbruch erfolgt ist, fiel doch der <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wetter-center.de\/Guide\/station2.php?m=11&amp;y=2015\" target=\"_blank\">November 2015<\/a> insgesamt viel milder aus als erwartet. Dies lag vor allem an der extrem warmen ersten Novemberh\u00e4lfte. Welche Auswirkungen hat das auf\u00a0die Langfristprognosen?<\/p>\n<p>Ein Blick auf das aktuelle National Multi Model Ensemble (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/NMME\/monanom.shtml\" target=\"_blank\">NMME<\/a>) zeigt folgendes Bild:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.wetter-center.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/nmme_dez15_jan16.gif\" data-rel=\"lightbox-image-0\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1441\" src=\"http:\/\/www.wetter-center.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/nmme_dez15_jan16.gif\" alt=\"nmme_dez15_jan16\" width=\"486\" height=\"254\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Das sieht\u00a0nicht anders aus als\u00a0vor einem Monat: \u00dcber fast ganz Europa sind nur positive Abweichungen von den Normalwerten f\u00fcr Dezember 2015 (links) und Januar 2016 (rechts) zu sehen.<\/p>\n<p>Die folgende Abbildung zeigt den Blick in die\u00a0Vergangenheit von Berlin. Hier sieht man alle Jahre, in denen der Oktober leicht zu kalt und der November deutlich zu mild ausgefallen ist (bezogen auf die Mittelwerte der letzten 30 Jahre) und was danach folgte:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.wetter-center.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Dez15-Feb16.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-image-1\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1442\" src=\"http:\/\/www.wetter-center.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Dez15-Feb16.png\" alt=\"Dez15-Feb16\" width=\"481\" height=\"319\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.wetter-center.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Dez15-Feb16.png 481w, https:\/\/www.wetter-center.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Dez15-Feb16-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 481px) 100vw, 481px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In 7 von 10 F\u00e4llen folgte ein milder bis sehr <strong>milder Dezember<\/strong> und ebenfalls in 7\u00a0von 10 F\u00e4llen ein normaler bis <strong>milder Januar<\/strong>. Nur in drei von 10 F\u00e4llen folgten kalte Monate.\u00a0Selbst f\u00fcr Februar zeigt sich noch eine\u00a0leichte Tendenz zu milder Witterung.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fazit:<\/strong>\u00a0Nach dem milden November stehen die Zeichen weiterhin auf einen milden Winter 2015\/16, k\u00e4ltere Perioden sind voraussichtlich nur von kurzer Dauer.\u00a0Die Wahrscheinlichkeit f\u00fcr einen insgesamt kalten Winter liegen bei etwa 30 Prozent.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Update:<\/strong>\u00a0Hier finden Sie die\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.wetter-center.de\/blog\/?p=1494\">aktualisierte Prognose bis M\u00e4rz 2016<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kurz vor dem meteorologischen Winteranfang folgt nun wie versprochen ein Update zur Winterprognose 2015\/16.\u00a0Obwohl wie erwartet in der zweiten Novemberh\u00e4lfte ein\u00a0Wintereinbruch erfolgt ist, fiel doch der November 2015 insgesamt viel milder aus als erwartet.&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[10,56,21],"class_list":["post-1440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-langfristvorhersagen","tag-deutschland","tag-vorhersage","tag-winter"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - 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